So maybe points per game is the fairest - but there is a wrinkle. It is possible to look at one aspect of those games in hand. Evaluating the difficulty of those fixtures by opponent its too subjective - but there is a valid refinement to the average points. What if we were to look at whether the points we are "averaging" are from home or away games and extrapolate them separately?
The tables below show the calculations.
At the top it makes no difference to European qualification - but if the ban on Man City is upheld, Man United will qualify for the Champions League and either Spurs or Arsenal will replace them in the Europa League. It's Arsenal if we adopt simple points averaging. It's Spurs if you take the table as is - or adjust the extrapolation for home or away games.
It is the bottom of the table where it is far more interesting. Assuming teams are relegated - it is Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Norwich, UNLESS you adjust the points average for the "home or away" factor. Then Bournemouth survive and West Ham go down.
This method takes account of the fact that Bournemouth have been stronger at home than West Ham and more of their remaining games were scheduled for the Vitality Stadium. It's not "right", nothing can be if the season is not completed but just as points per game is better than taking the current table, this eliminates part of the bias of a simple average.
HOME RESULTS | AWAY RESULTS | TOTAL | ||||||
Played | Goal diff | Point | ||||||
1 | Liverpool | 15 | 45 | 14 | 37 | 29 | 45 | 82 |
2 | Man City | 13 | 29 | 15 | 28 | 28 | 37 | 57 |
3 | Leicester | 15 | 30 | 14 | 23 | 29 | 30 | 53 |
4 | Chelsea | 15 | 24 | 14 | 24 | 29 | 12 | 48 |
5 | Man Utd | 15 | 29 | 14 | 16 | 29 | 14 | 45 |
6 | Sheff Utd | 15 | 24 | 13 | 19 | 28 | 5 | 43 |
7 | Wolves | 15 | 22 | 14 | 21 | 29 | 7 | 43 |
8 | Spurs | 14 | 26 | 15 | 15 | 29 | 7 | 41 |
9 | Arsenal | 15 | 26 | 13 | 14 | 28 | 4 | 40 |
10 | Crystal Palace | 15 | 22 | 14 | 17 | 29 | -6 | 39 |
11 | Burnley | 15 | 23 | 14 | 16 | 29 | -6 | 39 |
12 | Everton | 14 | 25 | 15 | 12 | 29 | -9 | 37 |
13 | Newcastle | 14 | 21 | 15 | 14 | 29 | -16 | 35 |
14 | Southampton | 15 | 14 | 14 | 20 | 29 | -17 | 34 |
15 | Brighton | 14 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 29 | -8 | 29 |
16 | West Ham | 14 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 29 | -15 | 27 |
17 | Watford | 14 | 17 | 15 | 10 | 29 | -17 | 27 |
18 | Bournemouth | 14 | 17 | 15 | 10 | 29 | -18 | 27 |
19 | Aston Villa | 13 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 28 | -22 | 25 |
20 | Norwich | 14 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 29 | -27 | 21 |
Simple average | Adjusted | |||||||
Pts | Pos. | Pts | Pos. | |||||
1 | Liverpool | 107.45 | 1 | 107.21 | 1 | |||
2 | Man City | 77.36 | 2 | 77.85 | 2 | |||
3 | Leicester | 69.45 | 3 | 69.21 | 3 | |||
4 | Chelsea | 62.90 | 4 | 62.97 | 4 | |||
5 | Man Utd | 58.97 | 5 | 58.45 | 5 | |||
6 | Sheff Utd | 58.36 | 6 | 58.17 | 6 | |||
7 | Wolves | 56.34 | 7 | 56.37 | 7 | |||
8 | Spurs | 53.72 | 9 | 54.29 | 8 | |||
9 | Arsenal | 54.29 | 8 | 53.39 | 9 | |||
10 | Crystal Palace | 51.10 | 11 | 50.94 | 10 | |||
11 | Burnley | 51.10 | 10 | 50.85 | 11 | |||
12 | Everton | 48.48 | 12 | 49.13 | 12 | |||
13 | Newcastle | 45.86 | 13 | 46.23 | 13 | |||
14 | Southampton | 44.55 | 14 | 44.88 | 14 | |||
15 | Brighton | 38.00 | 15 | 38.36 | 15 | |||
16 | West Ham | 35.38 | 16 | 35.56 | 18 | |||
17 | Watford | 35.38 | 17 | 35.74 | 16 | |||
18 | Bournemouth | 35.38 | 18 | 35.74 | 17 | |||
19 | Aston Villa | 33.93 | 19 | 34.98 | 19 | |||
20 | Norwich | 27.52 | 20 | 27.96 | 20 | |||
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